MARTIN WAMBUGU - Crime Rates in Kenya: A Rising Trend or a National Pastime?

Crime Rates in Kenya: A Rising Trend or a National Pastime?

Kenya, a land of scenic landscapes, marathon champions, and breathtaking safaris, is facing a different kind of race these days—the race between economic hardship and, well, a growing list of stolen items. Let’s face it: we might be known for producing gold medalists, but when it comes to crime statistics, we’re clocking in some impressive numbers. Theft crimes have been on the rise, and the correlation between economic stress and petty crime makes one wonder: is this a mere side effect of tough times or a subtle suggestion that we’ve accidentally found a new national sport?

Unemployment: Stealing the Spotlight

The correlation between unemployment and crime is as clear as Mombasa’s beaches on a good day. Between 2018 and 2022, the unemployment rate climbed faster than matatu fares during rush hour, peaking at over 10% in 2020 and 2021. And wouldn’t you know it? Theft crimes followed suit, with a steep rise in 2020, coinciding with the not-so-gentle economic nudge of the pandemic.

It's almost as if people thought, “No job? Well, I might as well take a hand in someone else’s earnings—literally.” I mean, if unemployment is going to rob us of opportunities, why not get back at it by… robbing? Kidding, of course. But on a serious note, these statistics do highlight how fragile livelihoods quickly become tinder for theft when the economy takes a nosedive.

Theft crimes versus Unemployment in Kenya

Inflation: The Price You Pay (Or Steal)

Now let’s talk about inflation. Our Consumer Price Index (CPI) went on an adventure, rising from 4.7% in 2018 to a respectable 7.9% by 2022. You’d think Kenyans were trying to collect inflation rates like kids collecting marbles back in the day. As the cost of living increased, the theft crimes, unsurprisingly, also showed a bump. Perhaps people started feeling like there was no other way to afford ugali, so stealing became the unorthodox solution to price hikes. “Excuse me, sir, I couldn’t afford this, so I thought I’d… temporarily borrow it?”

Of course, not everyone resorted to crime—most Kenyans continued to endure with quiet resilience, but there’s no denying that rising inflation put pressure on the most vulnerable.

Income Inequality: A Recipe for Theft

If Kenya had a “Gini,” it wouldn’t be a fancy drink; it’s our Gini coefficient—a measure of income inequality. And guess what? It’s been creeping up like the villain in a low-budget soap opera. From 0.47 in 2018 to 0.52 in 2022, inequality is like that relative who overstays their welcome. With inequality widening, it’s no surprise that theft crimes are on the rise. It’s almost as if people are saying, “Why let Jeff Bezos have all the fun? We’re redistributing wealth… the unofficial way.”

Education: The Missing Piece?

Interestingly, educational enrollment has been increasing steadily, which could suggest that maybe, just maybe, the future isn’t all doom and gloom. By 2022, we saw higher secondary school and university enrollment rates, so there’s hope that the next generation will have fewer reasons to “misplace” someone else’s belongings. Maybe one day, we’ll be stealing… ideas instead of goods.

But here’s the kicker: despite this positive educational trend, theft crimes haven’t significantly dropped yet. Could it be that we’re overeducated and underemployed, leading to more intellectual criminals? Perhaps future thieves will send polite “thank you” notes after stealing your phone, complete with well-researched quotes and footnotes.

What’s the Solution?

It’s not all dark clouds, though. As Kenyans, we’ve always been resourceful. If we can win marathons barefoot, surely we can outrun rising theft crimes, right? Addressing these issues will require creative solutions—better employment programs, addressing income inequality, and making sure education translates to meaningful work.

Until then, lock your doors, be aware of your surroundings, and remember—if something gets stolen, it’s not just personal, it’s statistical.